2007 Baseball Preview: AL Central
03/30/2007
Baseball Preview Home / Sports Channel / Bullz-Eye Home
Once considered the weakest division in baseball, the AL Central is now home to no fewer than four legitimate postseason contenders, led by the 2006 World Series runner-up Detroit Tigers and ’05 champion Chicago White Sox. Minnesota boasts a young and powerful lineup, but will the pitching hold up without last year’s rookie phenom Francisco Liriano? Cleveland was a trendy sleeper pick last season and, with a solid rotation and plenty of lineup thunder, they're a trendy sleeper pick again this year, and the Royals...well, anything less than last year's 100 losses would be an improvement.
AL Central |
1. Detroit Tigers
Newcomers: The Tigers made a big offseason move in acquiring OF/DH Gary Sheffield from the Yankees. The only other signing was RHP Jose Mesa (Rockies).
Departures: Detroit lost RHPs Humberto Sanchez, Anthony Claggett and Kevin Whelan in the Sheffield trade. Other losses were LHP Jamie Walker (Orioles) and OF Matt Stairs (Blue Jays).
Watch Out For: Joel Zumaya, RHP
Zumaya became the talk of the town in last year’s postseason, not only showing his outstanding velocity, but also hurting his hand by playing video games too much. Zumaya has closer written all over him, but until he can get control of his fastball, he’ll be regulated to a setup role. Still though, it will be interesting to watch him develop (he’s only 22) throughout the season and tune in for his high-90s fastball. Another player to keep an eye on is OF Curtis Granderson, who is a student of the game and has deceptive plate power.
Letdown Alert: Justin Verlander, RHP
This should only serve as a small letdown warning, because Verlander certainly has the stuff Cy Young winners are made of. He just pitched a lot of innings last year, so there is no telling what his sophomore year will bring. His velocity started to fade at the end of last season, suggesting that his hard-throwing approach started to take a toll. Tiger fans hope he only gets better, because his stuff is nasty. But after overachieving greatly last year, there might be a small fall from grace.
Glass Half Full: Detroit’s pitching staff is unbelievably loaded again, with Verlander, RHP Jeremy Bonderman, and LHPs Kenny Rogers, Nate Robertson and Mike Maroth all coming back for another World Series run. The Tigers had the best rotation in baseball last year and should only get better with more seasoning. The bullpen is stacked too, with Zumaya, Todd Jones, Fernando Rodney, Mesa and Wilfredo Ledezma bailing out the starters when need be. Offensively, the addition of Sheffield should only help OF Magglio Ordonez and SS Carlos Guillen’s production, as well as make 2B Placido Polanco a more dangerous contact hitter. Having a veteran presence in 1B Sean Casey for a full season should only help in the clubhouse, and C Ivan Rodriguez doesn’t appear to show signs of slowing down at age 35.
Glass Half Empty: The only major concern is fear of letdown after last year’s World Series appearance. Sometimes it’s difficult for a team to start quickly after previous success, but it’s hard to imagine Manager Jim Leyland letting this club start slowly. The news that Rogers will miss between six to eight months really hurts, however. And any letdown from Verlander may have a trickle-down effect through the rest of the rotation and the bullpen. Durability is also a concern in the lineup, with Rodriguez, Sheffield and Ordonez all 33 or older. Can Guillen be the jack-of-all-trades again? Will Rodriguez play more team ball this season instead of consistently swinging at 0-2 counts trying for the long ball? Is Neifi Perez really still on the team?
2. Chicago White Sox
Newcomers: General Manager Kenny Williams went on an offseason trading binge, dealing for LHPs Gio Gonzalez (Phillies), Carlos Vasquez (Cubs) and Andrew Sisco (Royals), RHPs Gavin Floyd (Phillies) and David Aardsma (Cubs). Other signings are OF Darin Erstad (Angels) and C Toby Hall (Devil Rays).
Departures: The losses were LHP Neal Cotts (Cubs), RHPs Brandon McCarthy (Rangers), Freddy Garcia (Phillies), Dustin Hermanson (Reds) and David Riske (Royals), INF/OF Ross Gload (Royals) and C Sandy Alomar Jr. (Mets).
Watch Out For: Ryan Sweeney, OF
The Chi Sox have an interesting battle heating up in center field. After receiving every advantage to run away with the job last year, Brian Anderson hit only .225 with eight HR and 33 RBI. Anderson’s lack of production led to the signing of veteran Darin Erstad, who presumably will win the opening day spot if his ankle has recovered from surgery. The wild card in the battle will be the 22-year-old Sweeney, who is a pure hitter and one the organization feels will be the future everyday centerfielder.
Letdown Alert: Scott Podsednik, OF
Podsednik had hernia surgery in late January, and while Manager Ozzie Guillen said his spot at the top of the lineup is secure, one has to wonder for how long. Podsednik struggled last season, hitting just .262 with only three HR and 45 RBI. He didn’t play particularly well defensively, and had issues running both in the field and on the base paths. Maybe the sports hernia affected his play, but if he doesn’t rebound quickly, he may be the first one dangled as mid-season trade bait.
Glass Half Full: The best reason for optimism is that the Sox still have a potent 3-4-5 trio in the middle of the lineup. The combination of DH Jim Thome, 1B Paul Konerko and OF Jermaine Dye is deadly for any pitcher, and if Podsednik rebounds he’ll be a hassle at the top of the order again. C A.J. Pierzynski showed durability in playing in a career-high 140 games last year and hit well too. Overall, Chicago is solid defensively, can hit the long ball and has one of the game’s emerging closers in RHP Bobby Jenks. The starting rotation will have to rebound, however, especially now that Garcia is in Philadelphia. The best thing for the Sox is if RHP Jose Contreras and LHP Mark Buehrle return to ’05 form and bounce back from a sub-par ’06 campaign. If RHP Javier Vazquez can win 15 games and Jon Garland another 15-plus, the Sox should more than make up for the loss of Garcia.
Glass Half Empty: As of right now, there is no clear-cut winner for the number five spot in the rotation. Every team likes competition, but if neither Floyd nor Gonzalez steps up, the loss of Garcia and McCarthy will have an effect. The biggest key might be Buehrle, who may have to win 16 or 17 games to offset both the loss of Garcia and the possible lack of production from the number five pitcher. The offense should carry this club, but postseason hopes are going to rest on the pitching staff. There’s no reason this team can’t win 90-plus games again, but will it get enough from the pitching staff to get past Detroit and Minnesota? It wasn’t last year.
3. Cleveland Indians
Newcomers: The bullpen was the major focus for the Tribe this offseason, signing LHP Aaron Fultz (Phillies) and RHPs Joe Borowski (Marlins) and Roberto Hernandez (Mets). Other signings/trades were 2B Josh Barfield (Padres), OF David Dellucci (Phillies) and OF Trot Nixon (Red Sox).
Departures: The only significant loss was 3B Aaron Boone (Marlins). 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff and RHP Andrew Brown were both traded to the Padres for Barfield.
Watch Out For: Grady Sizemore, OF
In the mold of Tampa Bay’s Carl Crawford, Sizemore is an outstanding athlete and extremely fun to watch. At the plate, he has shown a solid stroke with a mixture of quick hands and power. He strikes out a lot, but is fantastic hitting with runners in scoring position and going the opposite way with breaking pitches. He has improved his defense too, getting great jumps on balls hit over his head and working on his body control and instincts. He might be in for a .300-31-85 season.
Letdown Alert: Jhonny Peralta, SS
After hitting .292 with 24 HRs and 78 RBI in ’05, Peralta hit just .257 with 13 HRs and 68 RBI last year. Worse yet, his defense wasn’t that good either, showing limited flexibility and range at times because of his size. Some even question whether he’s playing out of position because of his size, hinting at a move to third base in the near future. If Peralta can’t cut down on the strikeouts and start taking the ball to the opposite field, his struggles will continue and Cleveland may be forced to make a move.
Glass Half Full: There is a lot of promise for the Tribe this season, especially at the top of the order with Sizemore, DH Travis Hafner and C Victor Martinez. Hafner is one of the best hitters in the game, with a strong upper body and selective approach at the plate. Martinez is another player who recognizes pitches well and who went on a tear after July 1 last year. Barfield is excellent at second base and should set the table for Hafner with his outstanding speed. LHP C.C. Sabathia tops a strong rotation that features a nice blend of power pitching and finesse. LHP Jeremy Sowers has a nice three-pitch assortment along with a fastball that has late sinking movement. LHP Cliff Lee and RHP Jake Westbrook are solid, and both could close in on 15 wins this year.
Glass Half Empty: There is no bigger issue than the bullpen. Last year the pen was a disaster and although the club took strides to improve it, there are still major question marks. After Keith Foulke retired (having been acquired as a free agent from Boston), the closer role was left to veteran Borowski. He has shown he’s up to the task, but also has durability issues. Hernandez is another crafty veteran who can be counted on, but is aging and nobody knows how much he has left in the tank. Fultz was added as a situational lefthander, but he doesn’t throw very hard and sometimes has control problems. RHP Paul Byrd struggled last year as the fifth starter, so there is some doubt there too. Can Andy Marte play third base? Will Peralta rebound after his ’05 breakthrough? The club has a lot of promise and could be a surprise, but questions still loom about whether it can make a run in a stacked AL Central.
4. Minnesota Twins
Newcomers: No major moves, but Minnesota did add 3B Jeff Cirillo (Brewers) and RHP Ramon Ortiz (Nationals).
Departures: RHP Brad Radke retired, while RHP Willie Eyre (Texas) and OF Shannon Stewart (A’s) signed with different clubs.
Watch Out For: Jason Bartlett, SS
Bartlett played well last year after a recall from the minors, showing more confidence at the plate and a penchant for line drives. He doesn’t have a ton of power, but doesn’t need it, given the position he plays and his spot in the order. With a lineup already chock-full of young talent, pitchers may forget about Bartlett at the bottom of the order, which may lead to more on-base opportunities and certainly runs scored.
Letdown Alert: Rondell White, OF
How much does White have left? His skills in the field are steadily declining and his freewheeling approach at the plate is leading to more holes in his swing than long balls. His range in the outfield isn’t the best, and he has trouble going back on deep balls over his head. At this point in his career, he should probably be a DH.
Glass Half Full: The lineup, bullpen and, of course, LHP Johan Santana all make the Twins instant contenders. This organization is one of the best as far as not overspending for talent and consistently getting young prospects like 1B Justin Morneau, C Joe Mauer, 3B Nick Punto and Bartlett. Toss in OF Torrii Hunter and the lineup features everything from speed to power, as well as a couple of players who can hit for average. Santana has filthy stuff and should register or come close to 20 wins this season with an ERA lower than 3.00. Joe Nathan is simply one of the best closers in the game, with Juan Rincon and RHP Pat Neshek setting the table for him in the eighth. RHP Jesse Crain provides solid middle relief help and Dennys Reyes is a left-handed specialist.
Glass Half Empty: Without a doubt, the biggest issue is the starting rotation. The Twins were pleasantly surprised with RHPs Matt Garza and Boof Bonser last year, but Carlos Silva needs to be better than 11-15 in Francisco Liriano’s absence. Liriano will miss the entire season, a huge blow considering the club was putting together one of the best 1-2 punches in MLB. The lineup is stacked, the defense is solid, but the pitching production after Santana will likely make or break the Twins’ season. Something spells letdown in Minnesota, especially with Detroit and Chicago still stacked and Cleveland rising quickly.
5. Kansas City Royals
Newcomers: KC wooed RHP Gil Meche to lead its starting rotation and added Octavio Dotel to beef up the bullpen. Other notable newcomers are C Jason LaRue (trade/Reds), RHPs Brian Bannister (trade/Mets) and David Riske (White Sox), LHP John Bale (Japan) and 1B Ross Gload (trade/White Sox).
Departures: 1B Doug Mientkiewicz (Yankees) and C Paul Bako (Orioles) signed with other clubs. Ambirorix Burgos (Mets), Andrew Sisco (White Sox) and IF Jeff Keppinger (Reds) were all dealt in trades.
Watch Out For: Mark Teahen, 3B
Teahen is arguably KC’s best future and present prospect. He’ll be heavily counted on batting in the three hole and should continue to swing better now that he’s had surgery to correct a nagging shoulder injury. After being promoted last year from Class AAA Omaha, he hit .313 with a team-high 18 HRs and a .350 average with runners in scoring position. While the weight of expectations may not help, Teahen should be set for a breakout season in the next two years.
Letdown Alert: Angel Berroa, SS
Berroa has rarely shown consistency at the plate and although he has a strong arm, will boot the routine play from time to time. His problems stem from chasing breaking balls and being a sucker for the fastball up. If he ever learns the strike zone he may develop into a nice player, but for now, expect more erratic play both at the plate and in the field.
Glass Half Full: Hey, the Royals can’t get much worse can they? Can they?! There is hope on the horizon now that Meche is on board, plus new General Manager Dayton Moore has steadily put together a young pitching staff. What’s nice about KC is its blend of young and veteran players. Teahen, CF David DeJesus, C John Buck, RHPs Brian Bannister and Zack Greinke all provide hope on the horizon while OF Reggie Sanders, DH Mike Sweeny and 2B Mark Grudzielanek are unspectacular but solid.
Glass Half Empty: Other than overpaying for Meche, this team rarely spends money in order to get better. Plus, big-money free agents rarely see KC as a place to grow their game, so the Royals are just going to have keep developing their prospects. This club seems to be heading in the right direction with Moore running things and should be better than last year, but competing in a stacked AL Central is still a distant dream.
AL Central |