2007 Baseball Preview: NL West
03/30/2007
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After the Dodgers, the NL West is arguably the hardest division to predict. San Diego, San Francisco, Arizona and Colorado are as likely to finish second as they are fifth. As usual, pitching and health should distinguish the contenders from the pretenders in this division. All five teams are flawed to some degree, from the aging Giants to the inexperienced Rockies. Nevertheless, one thing is guaranteed in the NL West, and that is a whole lot of uncertainty.
NL West |
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Newcomers: General Manager Ned Colletti had a busy offseason, acquiring free agents OFs Juan Pierre (Cubs) and Luis Gonzalez (Diamondbacks), LHP Randy Wolf (Phillies), C Mike Lieberthal (Phillies), RHP Jason Schmidt (Giants) and 3B Fernando Tatis (Orioles).
Departures: Notable departures were SS Julio Lugo (Red Sox); OFs J.D. Drew (Red Sox), Jayson Werth (Phillies), Jose Cruz Jr. (Padres) and Kenny Loften (Rangers); RHPs Greg Maddux (Padres) and Eric Gagne (Rangers); and C Toby Hall (White Sox).
Watch Out For: Andre Ethier, OF
Ethier probably won’t hit .308 again with pitchers becoming more accustomed to his tendencies, but that shouldn’t negate a breakout year. As a rookie in ’06, Ethier posted a higher OPS than Milton Bradley, the player for whom he was traded from Oakland. He’s got excellent bat speed, a compact stroke and is tough against lefties. He’s also turning into a very solid outfielder, showing his versatility by moving from left to right field to make room for Gonzalez. Watch for him to hit close to .300, with 15 HRs and 66 RBI, which would be solid from the seventh spot.
Letdown Alert: Luis Gonzalez, OF
Gonzalez, without a doubt, can still play the game. He’s a run producer, is still durable and is as savvy as they come. With that said, his bat speed and defense are quickly declining. On this team, he’s a nice fit as a complementary veteran, but there’s no arguing that he’s on the downside of his career. It’s a wonder why the Giants didn’t go after him now that he’s closing in on 40; he would have fit right in with them.
Glass Half Full: The Dodgers are far and away the best team in the NL West. The addition of Schmidt and Wolf to the starting rotation was huge, and will take a lot of pressure off RHPs Derek Lowe and Brad Penny, who were already solid. The bullpen is stacked too, with right handed closer Takashi Saito, RHP Jonathan Broxton and LHP Hong-Chi Kuo getting more seasoning. Pierre is an excellent addition to the top of the lineup, providing speed and a nice 1-2 punch with SS Rafael Furcal. 2B Jeff Kent is still dangerous and Gonzalez should do well with 1B Nomar Garciaparra following him in the lineup. Just like Ethier, 3B Wilson Betemit and C Russell Martin are two young players to keep an eye on, because a breakout year is on the horizon.
Glass Half Empty: The only thing that would derail L.A. from winning the West would be injuries or underachieving play. Furcal will start the season on the DL with an ankle injury, but he shouldn't miss more than a week or two. Gonzalez, Kent and Garciaparra are aging, so the possibility is out there that they’ll break down and wear out before the postseason. The fifth spot in the rotation is also a question mark, with Manager Grady Little deciding that RHP Chad Billingsley will start the season in the bullpen. That probably leaves RHP Brett Tomko (a smart pitcher who hasn’t had an ERA under 4.00 since ’97) to be the fifth starter. Another option is LHP Mark Hendrickson who has pitched well so far in spring training, but his career ERA is 4.98 and is an option to be traded before the season starts. The Dodgers are strong and benefit from a weak division, but will they ever get out of their first round funk in the postseason?
2. San Diego Padres
Newcomers: The Pads’ most notable signing was RHP Greg Maddux, who will probably be their ace. Other signings were OF Jose Cruz Jr. (Dodgers), 2B Marcus Giles (Braves) and C Todd Greene (Giants). 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff (Indians), RHPs Andrew Brown (Indians) and Heath Bell (Mets) and LHP Royce Ring (Mets) were acquired via trades.
Departures: San Diego lost notable contributors OF Dave Roberts (Giants), 2B Josh Barfield (trade/Indians), C Mike Piazza (A’s) and RHPs Woody Williams (Astros) and Scott Williamson (Orioles). Other departures were OF Ben Johnson (trade/Mets), RHPs Jon Adkins (trade/Mets) and Rudy Seanez (Dodgers)., LHP Alan Embree (A’s) and 1B Ryan Klesko (Giants).
Watch Out For: Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Gonzalez has all the tools to become an All-Star in the near future. He generally crushes balls over the plate when he can get his hands through, and is evolving his defensive game. Last year, Gonzalez hit .304 with 24 HRs and 82 RBI. With his potential, he can elevate all three of those categories, including becoming a 100-RBI and 30-HR first baseman. Sky’s the limit.
Letdown Alert: Marcus Giles, 2B
OF Termel Sledge will be the Pads leadoff hitter in ’07, which is a good thing for Giles who struggled mightily in the role last year with the Braves. Giles has a tendency to be too aggressive at the plate, instead of being selective and waiting for his pitch. He also battled a hand injury last year, which severely limited his swing and made him a stiff defender as well. Playing alongside his brother Brian may help his confidence, but this could be a one and done year for Marcus in San Diego.
Glass Half Full: The pitching staff is pretty good, especially with solid contributions from Maddux and LHP David Wells. RHP Jake Peavy has the stuff to win 15-plus games every season, but just needs to harness his control and not hang his fastball when he gets into trouble. The bullpen is solid too, especially considering the club hung on to RHP Scott Linebrink, who, along with emerging RHP Cla Meredith, will set up for the lights-out Trevor Hoffman. The Pads aren’t as solid offensively as the pitching staff, but if Brian Giles can turn it up a notch, he can make Gonzalez, Marcus and OF Mike Cameron better around him. Brian might be the straw that stirs the drink for San Diego’s offense, although having C Josh Bard hit well over .300 again would certainly help matters.
Glass Half Empty: Offensively, San Diego shouldn’t scare anyone. Brian Giles seems to be fading fast, while his brother Marcus is coming off a sub par year himself. Sledge needs to show more pop and on-base ability to be counted on as an everyday player, and who knows if Bard can come close to his .338 Avg. of last season. Another issue could be the age of the starting rotation, with Maddux and Wells now in their 40s. Maddux had to have a brilliant ’06 finish to save himself last year, and Wells is usually good for five-plus starts a season. This team is going to need a big effort from the pitching staff in order to see the postseason again.
3. San Francisco Giants
Newcomers: The Giants gave former A’s LHP Barry Zito an outlandish seven-year, $126 million contract. 1B Rich Aurilia (Reds), OF Dave Roberts (Padres), RHP Russ Ortiz (Orioles), 1B Ryan Klesko (Padres) and C Bengie Molina (Blue Jays) were the less attractive offseason additions.
Departures: RHP Jason Schmidt not only left San Fran, but also signed with its biggest division foe in the Dodgers. OFs Moises Alou (Mets) and Steve Finely (Rockies), 1B/3B Shea Hillenbrand (Angels) and LHP Mike Stanton (Reds), opted for free agency.
Watch Out For: Matt Cain, RHP
After a rocky start to his ’06 campaign, Cain led the Giants in wins (13) and finished in the top 10 of the NL in strikeouts and hits per nine innings. He was set to become San Fran’s ace until the club doled out 12 gazillion dollars for Zito. Either way, Cain seems destined for a No. 1 role, owning an outstanding live fastball and excellent control. With Zito taking the lofty expectations off him, Cain has the potential to win 15-plus games this year while pitching more than 200 innings.
Letdown Alert: Matt Morris, RHP
Morris’s San Fran debut was a disaster last year, going 10-15 with a 4.98 ERA. While he didn’t get much help offensively, he seems to have lost the stuff that made him a Cy Young nominee in St. Louis. So far in spring training he’s been lit up like a Christmas tree, which doesn’t bode well with youngsters Lincecum, RHP Brad Hennessy and LHP Jonathan Sanchez raring to go behind him. Morris better pitch well early or else a move to the bullpen could be in order.
Glass Half Full: The G-Men are chock-full of veteran talent and players who know the game. 3B Pedro Feliz has been working on shortening his swing and becoming a more complete hitter, and 2B Ray Durham has transformed his game from speed to power. If Bonds is healthy, Durham should thrive again hitting behind him, and SS Omar Vizquel has become a better hitter with age. Roberts adds more speed at the top of the lineup and Molina can still hit for average. One thing the Giants have done well of late is stock young arms. Cain and LHP Noah Lowry should continue to improve working with Zito, and Hennessy and Sanchez are destined for starting roles in the near future. Depending on if he’ll hit the minors or the bullpen early in ’07, RHP Tim Lincecum has a bright future with the club too.
Glass Half Empty: Yikes, this team was old three years ago. The pitching staff is young, but where’s the youth movement that General Manager Brian Sabean talked about in the offseason? Sure, they were outbid for free agents Juan Pierre and Carlos Lee, but how about retooling the lineup through the farm system one time Sabean? Durability is a huge concern for this club, especially with Bonds, Durham and Roberts destined for disabled list appearances. Molina isn’t particularly cat-like behind the plate either, and Bonds is a major liability in left. The closer role is still a problem too, with trade talks brewing again regarding RHP Armando Benitez. Zito has consistently lost zip on his fastball, and is Russ freakin’ Ortiz really going to be the fifth starter?
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
Newcomers: The biggest offseason move the D-Backs made was re-acquiring LHP Randy Johnson in a trade with the Yankees. LHP Doug Davis and OF David Krynzel join the club via a trade with the Brewers.
Departures: RHP Miguel Batista (Mariners) and OF Luis Gonzalez (Dodgers) left via free agency, while RHPs Greg Aquino and Claudio Vargas and C Johnny Estrada were traded to the Brewers.
Watch Out For: Conor Jackson, 1B
Although he probably needs to drive the ball more, considering the position he plays, Jackson is quickly becoming one of Arizona’s best young hitters. He hit .291 with 15 HRs and 79 RBI last year, but his long ball and RBI production should rise dramatically this season. If he continues to develop more patience at the plate, he’ll soon be a star in the league.
Letdown Alert: Livan Hernandez, RHP
The D-Backs are rumored to be interested in locking up Hernandez long-term, which is a bit surprising considering he’s 32 and had an ERA of 4.83. He’s still an inning-eater, but needs a lot of run production to win games and will walk a lot of batters too. He may win 15 games this year, but he’s just as apt to lose 15 too.
Glass Half Full: The pitching staff looks to be the strength of the team, with RHP Brandon Webb leading the way and Randy Johnson, Hernandez and Davis forming the rest of the rotation. While not a power pitcher, Webb is definitely a number one and can dominate without much velocity. The D-Backs also have a nice, young lineup that starts with 2B Orlando Hudson in the leadoff spot. Hudson is a two-time Gold Glover winner who can hit for average and power. CF Chris Young, 3B Chad Tracy and OF Carlos Quentin are all up and comers as well, with Conor Jackson the one to keep an eye on deeper in the order. If the veteran pitching comes together and the young hitters produce, it’s not out of the question that Arizona surprises folks this season.
Glass Half Empty: Replacing Miguel Batista and Cladudio Vargas won’t be as easy as everybody thinks. Randy Johnson and Hernandez can be just as inconsistent as they are dominant, and the closer role is in flux. The fifth spot in the rotation isn’t settled either, with Enrique Gonzalez, Edgar Gonzalez, Dustin Nippert, Micah Owings, Dana Eveland, Evan MacLane and Juan Cruz all battling for a chance to start. Losing veteran leadership like OF Luis Gonzalez and INF Craig Counsell is going to hurt more than the team thinks, too. Can all the young hitters produce? Just like Colorado, Arizona is chock-full of young potential, but it might be unrealistic to think everything is going to come together this season.
5. Colorado Rockies
Newcomers: Colorado brought in OF Willy Taveras in a trade with the Astros to be its leadoff hitter. RHPs LaTroy Hawkins (Orioles), Jason Hirsh (trade/Astros) and Taylor Buchholz (trade/Astros) were brought in to help shape the bullpen.
Departures: RHPs Jason Jennings and Miguel Asencio were traded to Houston. 2B Jason Smith (Blue Jays), RHP Jose Mesa (Tigers) and LHP Justin Hampson (Padres) signed with other clubs.
Watch Out For: Garrett Atkins, 3B
One of the game’s better young hitters, Atkins has a smooth swing and often takes what the pitcher gives him. In 602 at bats last season, Atkins hit .329 with 29 HRs and 120 RBI. He also scored 117 runs and finished with 48 doubles. He led the NL in grounding into 24 double plays, so becoming more clutch with runners in scoring position is something he obviously needs to work on. However, if Atkins can come close to his ’06 production, OFs Matt Holliday and Brad Hawpe and 1B Todd Helton should flourish.
Letdown Alert: Todd Helton, 1B
This has more to do with Helton’s power than anything else, although it should be noted that OF Matt Holliday has supplanted Helton as the Rockies’ most valuable hitter. Due to an intestinal disorder last year, Helton lost a lot of weight and therefore power at the plate. So far this spring, he has battled inflammation in his knee, which doesn’t bode well for the team’s confidence in him. He’ll always be a solid contact hitter and fine defenseman, but given the club’s interest in trading him over the offseason, it’s probably safe to assume his days in Colorado are fading.
Glass Half Full: In the same mold of the ’03 Marlins, the Rockies are going to be exciting with their youth. The middle of the order consisting of Atkins, Holliday and Helton should provide plenty of pop, with Hawpe and even C Chris Iannetta being the wild cards. Depth shouldn’t be an issue either, with C Yorvit Torrealba, SS Clint Barnes, Carroll and OF Cory Sullivan providing above average play behind the starters. Troy Tulowitzki, a ’05 first round pick, has high expectations from the club and may become the Rockies’ everyday shortstop for years to come. While the starting rotation lost a horse in Jennings, LHP Jeff Francis is more than ready to become the ace, and RHP Aaron Cook could develop into a nice ground-ball pitcher if he doesn’t wear down. Closing games will not be a problem either as LHP Brian Fuentes should come close to 40 saves this season.
Glass Half Empty: As with all young teams, maturing and not folding under pressure will be the key. Some pundits believe that this team is ready to take the next step, while others think Colorado is still a year away. The pitching rotation is suspect in areas and there’s a reason why Hawkins never made it in Chicago, San Fran or Baltimore. As previously noted, Helton’s power is fading, so that puts more pressure on Holliday and Atkins in the middle of the order. Can this team bail out the pitching staff when it starts to falter? Can the club be a better second half team than it was last year? Will Francis and Cook have to carry the rest of the rotation or will RHP Josh Fogg step up?
NL West |