2007 Baseball Preview: NL Central
03/30/2007
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The World Champion St. Louis Cardinals should cruise to another division title as long as they stay healthy and their pitching doesn’t lack. Much like the Indians in the American League, the Cubs may be the sleeper team in the Senior Circuit after adding the likes of Alfonso Soriano and Ted Lilly and re-signing Aramis Ramirez. Houston will have to deal with losing not one, but two marquee pitchers in Roger Clemens (potentially) and Andy Pettitte, while Milwaukee has a strong rotation, but will their lineup's power shortage keep them from competing? The Reds nearly cracked .500 last year but their lack of rotation depth and a shaky bullpen could have them battling Pittsburgh for the division's basement.
NL Central |
1. St. Louis Cardinals
Newcomers: The defending champs didn’t need to add much, but did sign 2B Adam Kennedy (Angels) and RHPs Kip Wells (Rangers) and Russ Springer (Astros).
Departures: The Cards lost RHPs Jeff Suppan (Brewers), Jeff Weaver (Mariners) and Jason Marquis (Cubs); and 2B Ronnie Belliard (Nationals).
Watch Out For: Anthony Reyes, RHP
Even though Reyes posted a 5-8 record last year as a starter, he had an outstanding World Series performance that might catapult him in ’07. Unlike fellow hurler Kip Wells, he has the makeup to be a solid pitcher with excellent mound presence and command. He uses both a two-seam and four-seam fastball, while mixing in a curveball and changeup. Right now his ceiling is probably 10 or 11 wins, but someday might be a 15-game winner.
Letdown Alert: Kip Wells, RHP
Wells certainly has the stuff and desire to be a successful pitcher year in and year out, but inconsistency and pressure have haunted his career. It appears that he does better in low-pressure situations like Pittsburgh rather than in a national spotlight, which is exactly what he’ll face now that he’s with a contender. He’ll have one or two solid outings and then lose his confidence. More grit and savvy are probably necessary for Wells to ever have a breakout season.
Glass Half Full: St. Louis houses an MVP and CY Young candidate on the same team, so it certainly is the team to beat. There just aren’t enough good things to say about 1B Albert Pujols’ game. The guy only struck out 50 freaking times last year, which is astonishing for a power hitter. When a player can hit .331 with 49 HRs and 137 RBI, he can almost carry a team on his shoulders. Likewise for RHP Chris Carpenter, who might win 20 games and have an ERA that hovers well below 3.00. Scott Rolen has durability concerns, but still is one of the best third basemen in the league and can hit for both average and power. Add quality pieces such as SS David Eckstein, OF Jim Edmonds and RHP Adam Wainwright, and the Cards have every reason to think World Series again in ’07.
Glass Half Empty: It’s hard to talk about weaknesses with a team that just won a championship, but look hard and they’re there. The starting pitching is a bit in flux right now with RHP Mark Mulder likely out until after the All-Star break. Wainwright has all the tools to be a starter, but one has to question if he can go the distance after handling all the closer duties last season. This team also overachievers in Eckstein and Kennedy, which certainly is not a bad thing, but one has to wonder if that can carry you year in and year out. The offense and defense are there, but the starting pitching is going to be what determines a World Series repeat or an early exit from the postseason (or the postseason at all).
2. Chicago Cubs
| ALL-MOVIE TEAM We've already given you the list of our 10 favorite baseball films, which got us thinking: If you could field a team made up of only characters from baseball movies, what would it look like? There's only one rule: No more than three players can be selected from one movie, though as you'll see from our roster below, we made an exception for our skipper. CATCHER: FIRST BASE: SECOND BASE: SHORTSTOP: THIRD BASE: LEFT FIELD: CENTER FIELD: RIGHT FIELD : DESIGNATED HITTER : STARTING PITCHER : STARTING PITCHER : RELIEF PITCHER: PINCH RUNNER: MANAGER: BENCH COACH : |
Newcomers: The Cubs made huge splashes in free agency, acquiring OF Alfonso Soriano (Nationals), LHP Ted Lilly (Blue Jays) and RHP Jason Marquis (Cardinals). They also added 2B Mark DeRosa (Rangers), 1B Daryle Ward (Braves), OF Cliff Floyd (Mets) and LHP Neal Cotts (trade/White Sox).
Departures: Chicago didn’t suffer too many losses, but did part with RHP David Aardsma (trade/White Sox) and OFs Michael Restovich (Nationals), Juan Pierre (Dodgers) and Freddie Bynum (trade/Orioles).
Watch Out For: Felix Pie, OF
This is saying a lot, but Pie might be the best prospect on any team in the league. Blessed with exceptional power and speed, he’s certainly the future in center field for the Cubs. The only question is if Chicago will bring him up, considering Soriano will assume the CF spot. LF Matt Murton showed considerable improvement in his second big league season last year, so he won’t be moved. But watch for the Cubs to make a move if RF Jacque Jones continues to disappoint.
Letdown Alert: Jacque Jones, OF
Jones has had elbow problems that are hindering his outfield production. His throws tend to sail, although he’s always had issues hitting the cutoff man. Despite hitting .285 last season with 27 HRs and 81 RBI, he tends to hit off his front foot and can be had when pitchers work him up in the zone. With so many young outfield prospects in the Cubs’ farm system, Jones doesn’t seem destined for the Windy City much longer.
Glass Half Full: The Cubs have improved after winning just 66 games in ’06. The pitching staff, at least on paper, is much better with Lilly and Marquis joining the starting rotation. Ace Carlos Zambrano is a true CY Young candidate and LHP Rich Hill might have a breakout season. The lineup is powerful too, with Soriano obviously being the main attraction. He’ll add 40-plus HRs and 100-plus RBI to a lineup that already features a now healthy Derek Lee and re-signed Aramis Ramirez. The team has a lot more speed now too, with Soriano joining the likes of SS Cesar Izturis Jones. Finally, C Michael Barrett is solid behind the plate, offering great bat speed and above-average defense. If the Cubs can stay healthy, there’s no reason why they can’t win the Central, especially with the Cards’ pitching situation in flux. Chicago might be the surprise of the year.
Glass Half Empty: Of course, as with any contender, Chicago has to stay healthy. When Lee went down early last season with a broken wrist, the team fell apart like Michael Richards’ career. The club seemed to add enough pieces, but there’s no telling how all the new acquisitions are going to come together on a new team. Will Marquis emerge as the fifth starter or is Wade Miller a better option? And what’s to remain from the promising futures of RHPs Kerry Wood and Mark Prior? The team hopes it can salvage something from Wood’s career and make him a starter, but injuries have absolutely ravaged his outstanding potential. Ditto for Prior, who is trying to make a comeback as a middle of the rotation pitcher, but has struggled so far in spring training and will not be in the rotation at the start of the season. This team could surprise, but there are questions aplenty regarding the pitching staff and they could use one more quality bat.
3. Houston Astros
Newcomers: Without a doubt, OF Carlos Lee (Rangers) was Houston’s biggest free agent acquisition. The club also added RHPs Jason Jennings (trade/Rockies), Woody Williams (Padres) and Miguel Asencio (trade/Rockies); and 2B Mark Loretta (Red Sox).
Departures: Long time 1B Jeff Bagwell retired while RHPs Russ Springer (Cardinals), Jason Hirsh (trade/Rockies) and Talyor Buchholz (trade/ Rockies); LHP Andy Pettitte, OF Willy Tavras (trade/Rockies) and 3B Aubrey Huff (Orioles) were dealt or signed by other teams.
Watch Out For: Luke Scott, OF
Scott exploded on the scene last year by hitting .336 with 10 HRs and 37 RBI. Obviously his HR and RBI production have to increase, but he can certainly hit the ball. He has developed more patience at the plate and has deceptive power for not being overly big. He’ll make it in the league as a hitter, because his defense is below average.
Letdown Alert: Craig Biggio, 2B
Any true baseball fan has to love what Biggio brought to the game over the years, but how much does this guy have left? At 41, he was old four or five years ago. His bat speed continues to decline, he’s not fluid defensively and relies more on knowledge than talent. He really struggled in the second half of last year and should be ready for retirement, but he should log his 3,000th hit; an outstanding achievement for any major leaguer.
Glass Half Full: OF Carlos Lee adds serious muscle and speed to Houston’s lineup. 1B Lance Berkman should be the biggest benefactor of the free agent signing, hopefully seeing more pitches to hit by batting in front of Lee. If Scott pans out, then at least the middle of the lineup will produce more offense than in ’06, and OF Chris Burke has breakout potential too. Although losing Springer hurts, the bullpen should again be solid. Closer Brad Lidge, although coming off a down year, should rebound. Setup man Dan Wheeler is solid and could fill in for Lidge if need be. The rotation should be fine with the additions of Jennings and Williams, and at least RHP Roy Oswalt is proven to be a 15-plus winner.
Glass Half Empty: Lee is going to help, but the Astros’ offense was terrible last year. As a team, Houston hit just .255, which tied Tampa Bay for the worst in the league. Those doubts are still there as Biggio, 3B Morgan Ensberg, C Brad Ausmus and SS Adam Everett all have the potential to hit under .250. That kind of offensive production is just not going to get it done. The rotation took huge hits with the losses of Pettitte and, potentially, Roger Clemens. There are serious doubts that Jennings is a number two pitcher. He’d probably benefit more by being a middle of the rotation guy, but the situation is what it is and he’ll have to rise to expectations. This team could finish anywhere from second to fourth in the division depending on the starting rotation.
4. Milwaukee Brewers
Newcomers: C Johnny Estrada (trade/Diamondbacks), 2B Craig Counsell (Diamondbacks) and RHPs Claudio Vargas (trade/Diamondbacks), Greg Aquino (trade/Diamondbacks) and Jeff Suppan (Cardinals) were the notable additions.
Departures: Milwaukee lost some lefties with Doug Davis and Dana Eveland being shipped to Arizona. OF David Krynzel was also traded to Arizona while 3B Jeff Cirillo (Twins) and C Chad Moeller (Reds) signed with other teams.
Watch Out For: Prince Fielder, 1B
Son of “Big Daddy” Cecil Fielder, Prince is a power hitter who uses the whole field and who has excellent pitch recognition. He should hit 30-plus HRs this season while closing in on 100 RBI. He runs well for being a big guy, although his weight has been subject to criticism at times. He’s a defensive liability, but provides plenty of pop at the cleanup spot.
Letdown Alert: Corey Koskie, 3B
Koskie has had a ton of injury problems, including suffering a severe concussion that cost him virtually the entire second half of ’06. His bat is slowing and he struggles vs. lefties. He’s also not very productive with runners in scoring position, which doesn’t help given the position he plays. Even if he stays healthy, this 33-year old is on the downside of his career.
Glass Half Full: The pitching staff is pretty attractive with the additions of Suppan and Vargas. RHP Ben Sheets hopes to recover from shoulder problems that limited him to only 17 starts last year. LHP Chris Capuano won 11 games last year and has the stuff to keep improving. The bullpen is solid too, with closer Francisco Cordero and Derrick Turnbow the studs of the group. The key to the pitching staff is if the starting rotation can work deep into the seventh inning to get to the bullpen. The offense isn’t spectacular, but maybe it doesn’t have to be if the pitching staff could just overachieve a bit. If Fielder’s power numbers explode this year, the lineup offers solid bats like Bill Hall and Corey Hart. Estrada should provide a lift after being acquired from Arizona.
Glass Half Empty: This club still has a lot of uncertainties to be ranked any higher in the division. Koskie seems done and Geoff Jenkins batted just .133 against lefties last year. He’ll need to bounce back or the lack of pop in the offense will likely doom the Brew Crew. There aren’t a lot of guys who hit for average in their lineup either, with exception of maybe 2B Rickie Weeks. Even though Hall has improved at the plate, he still strikes out a lot and hasn’t distinguished himself in either the infield or outfield. As previously noted, the starting pitching is going to be the difference of a potential Wild Card team or another 75-win season.
5. Cincinnati Reds
Newcomers: Notable additions are OFs Bubby Crosby (A’s) and Jeff Conine (trade/Phillies); LHPs Mike Stanton (Giants) and Bobby Livingston (Mariners); SS Alex Gonzalez (Red Sox) and C Chad Moeller (Brewers).
Departures: Cincy lost infield depth with the departures of SS Royce Clayton (Blue Jays), 1B Rich Aurilia (Giants) and 2B Brendan Harris (trade/Devil Rays). RHP Jason Standridge (Mets) and C Jason LaRue (trade/Royals) were also lost.
Watch Out For: Brandon Phillips, 2B
Phillips had the most productive season of his career coming over from the Indians last year. He hit .276 with 17 HRs and 75 RBI. His home run totals should prosper in ’07 too, especially as he gets more comfortable in his second year in Cincy. If Ken Griffey can stay healthy, pitchers may fall asleep on Phillips’ power after going through the 3-4-5 part in the order. Phillips’ defense is pretty good too, displaying good hands, quick feet and an above-average release.
Letdown Alert: Ken Griffey, OF
Remember when people used to love to debate whether Ken Griffey was a better player than Barry Bonds? “The Kid” used to get the benefit of the doubt on most occasions, but injuries and lack of steroid use has since crowned Bonds the king of the ‘90s. Griffey’s injury issues have marred one of the best baseball players of the past two decades. He’s still going to give you 25-plus homers and maybe 80 RBI, but his bat speed is declining and his range in the field is mostly instinct now instead of pure talent. Overall, his legs have to hold up for most of the year for him to put together a productive ’06.
Glass Half Full: In RHPs Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo, Cincy has two of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. The combo could combine for 30-plus wins this year, which would go a long way in helping the Reds improve. Harang led the league in strikeouts while Arroyo pitched 240 innings last year. Harang also had six complete games last year, which lead the National League Closer David Weathers returned after fielding offers as a free agent. His 4-4 record and 3.54 ERA don’t tell the whole story of how good he was in ’06. Power is never an issue in Cincy, but hitting just .257 is. Griffey, OF Adam Dunn and Phillips will certainly hit ‘em out, but they’ll also strike out a ton too. Hey, wasn’t this the glass half full section? Sorry Red fans, it just seems that your team always backs up good qualities with poor ones.
Glass Half Empty: Unfortunately for the Reds, there are several issues and they aren’t just in one category either. The starting pitching doesn’t have a lot of depth behind Harang and Arroyo, the lineup is filled with strikeout artists and the bullpen isn’t strong other than Weathers. Like in most seasons, Griffey’s health status is in question. He seems to be made of glass and can never be counted on to play an entire season. Dunn and Juan Encarnacion really suffer without his protection in the lineup, and until Cincy can add another quality hitter, the offense will continue to be made up of empty home runs. If the organization could produce two more arms and a more complete hitter, the Reds might become a future sleeper. But for now, they’ll just have to take solace that they’re not the Pirates.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
Newcomers: Pittsburgh didn’t make a ton of moves, but did sign RHPs Tony Armas (Nationals), Franquelis Osoria (Dodgers) and Yoslan Herrera (Cuban National Team).
Departures: Both OF Jeromy Burnitz and 3B Joe Randa retired in the offseason.
Watch Out For: Zach Duke, LHP
Duke won 10 games last year, which is like winning 25 games for a contender with the way the Pirates hit. He’s a finesse pitcher with excellent control and he changes his pitch selection to keep hitters off balance. He also has a deceptive delivery that makes his pitches seem more effective. Duke heads a rotation that breeds optimism.
Letdown Alert: Jose Castillo, 2B
Castillo didn’t look like he recovered completely last year from knee surgery and many question his dedication. That’s tough on a team trying to manufacture more overachievers and a better overall philosophy. Castillo struggled in the field last year due to added weight. His range wasn’t that good and other than being able to turn the double play well, he is a liability at second. Pittsburgh has to find a better option through the farm system and bring the lad up. How about Brent Lillibridge?
Glass Half Full: Oh boy, well, the uniforms are kind of cool. Everything begins and ends with the pitching rotation as far as good things to say about the Pirates. Duke, Ian Snell, Paul Maholm and Tom Gorzelanny all have promising futures, but without decent offensive production they seem doomed for ’07. OFs Jason Bay and Xavier Nady, 3B Freddy Sanchez and maybe C Ronny Paulino offer the most in the lineup. Bay is definitely a future All-Star, with plenty of star power as a long-ball hitter, run producer and above-average defender. Sanchez is a nice player who should continue to improve now that Randa isn’t in front of him too. He’s a classic overachiever.
Glass Half Empty: Where to begin? The offense shouldn’t scare any opposing pitcher and it seems that the club doesn’t have a lot of baseball-savvy hitters. Some scouts believe Nady is vastly overrated too, which doesn’t bode well considering he’s supposed to be one the of main cogs in the order. Other than a young pitching staff filled with potential, there is serious doubt that this organization is going to turn around its misfortunes any time soon. And it’s tough to improve when no major free agents want to sign with you. In a lot of areas, Pittsburgh still seems light years away from being respectable.
NL Central |