2007 Baseball Preview: AL West
03/30/2007
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Much like the NL West, the AL West is an intriguing division with no clear favorite. Los Angeles arguably owns the division’s best talent, but will HGH questions swirling around newcomer Gary Matthews Jr. distract the rest of the team? Oakland lost Barry Zito but still has some of the best pitching in the league and Texas is strong defensively but, as always, the starting rotation is a bit of a mystery. Seattle has excellent young talent, but can the M’s put it all together for a serious run at the postseason? The West may not be won until the last few days of the regular season.
AL West |
1. Los Angeles Angels
Newcomers: Los Angeles plucked OF Gary Matthews Jr. (Rangers), RHP Justin Speier (Blue Jays), LHP Darren Oliver (Mets) and 1B Shea Hillenbrand (Giants) from the free agent market. RHP Chris Resop was acquired through a trade with Florida.
Departures: The Angels lost CF Darin Erstad (White Sox), 2B Adam Kennedy (Cardinals) and LHP J.C. Romero (Red Sox) to free agency. RHP Kevin Gregg was traded to the Marlins.
Letdown Alert: Gary Matthews Jr. OF
When a team signs someone to a five-year, $50 million contract, it doesn’t expect that player to find himself smack-dab in the middle of a steroid investigation three months later. But that’s exactly what happened with Matthews, who allegedly ordered Human Growth Hormone (HGH) from a company in Orlando that has been linked to providing steroids to professional athletes. Matthews denies taking HGH, the Angels are fuming and the situation seems destined for a bad ending. Either way, $50 million for a guy with only one good year was nuts.
Watch Out For: Erick Aybar, OF
This is the only time in Bullz-Eye’s MLB Preview that you’ll see the “Watch Out For” following the “Letdown Alert.” That’s because given the Angels’ likely doomed situation with Matthews, Aybar could be the biggest benefactor. A solid defender with a power bat, the Angels are looking at Aybar to fill its center field role if Matthews is disciplined. Given a no-trade clause in his contract, Matthews can’t be dealt, but may be subjected to a 60 to 80-game suspension, giving Aybar a chance to show his mettle at the next level.
Glass Half Full: The Angels boast one of the best rotations in the league. RHPs John Lackey and ’06 rookie phenom Jered Weaver are the studs of a starting rotation that will be stronger once Bartolo Colon is 100 percent again. If RHP Kelvim Esocbar can shake his previous arm issues, he has the stuff to be a 15 or 18 game winner. Closer Francisco Rodriguez is the rock of the bullpen, but the club also gets outstanding value from setup man Scot Shields. Any lineup that features OF Vladimir Guerrero is going to be dangerous, especially when surrounded by an underrated Orlando Cabrera, savvy Garret Anderson and powerful Hillenbrand. Depending on what happens with Mathews, the Angels lineup is altogether dangerous and the pitching staff makes them the team to beat in the West.
Glass Half Empty: The Matthews situation is the biggest issue, even if the league or team can’t suspend him due to the timing of MLB’s ban on illegal substances. Will his mindframe still be okay after a tumultuous spring training? The lineup is good with or without him, but a perennial contender like the Angels doesn’t need any distractions at the start of the season. Of course the next big issue is the health of Colon, who missed most of ’06 with a partially torn rotator cuff. With him, the Angels have arguably the best top of the rotation in the league. Without him, can Weaver duplicate his 11-2 record last year? If his brother Jeff’s career is any indication, Jered appears ready for a letdown season. Still, this club seems to be the cream of the crop out West.
2. Oakland A’s
Newcomers: The A’s added pop to their lineup with C/DH Mike Piazza (Padres). Other additions are RHP Scott Dunn (Devil Rays), LHP Alan Embree (Padres) and OFs Shannon Stewart and Ricky Ledee.
Departures: LHP Barry Zito was arguably Oakland’s biggest loss. DH Frank Thomas (Blue Jays), OF Jay Payton (Orioles) and RHP Matt Roney (Blue Jays) also departed via free agency.
Watch Out For: Dan Haren, RHP
Many scouts think that Haren, not Rich Harden, should be the Opening Day starter. Haren's not as purely talented as Harden, but not many pitchers in baseball are. Haren, however, is much more durable and reliable than Harden, and while he doesn’t throw a very live fastball, he can locate it well and fool hitters sitting back on his breaking ball. Watch for Haren to top the 15-win mark this season with an ERA well under 4.00.
Letdown Alert: Rich Harden, RHP
Harden’s elbow problems shelved him for most of ’06, which raises huge question marks about whether he can be the ace of the staff. With Zito now in San Francisco, Harden may succumb to lofty expectations. He has a live arm with a deceptive motion to the plate that makes it hard for hitters to pick up his pitches. He has all the tools, but some question if he’ll even reach 30 starts.
Glass Half Full: The most optimal situation is that Harden stays healthy for an entire year to make an excellent 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation. RHP Esteban Loaiza continues to fade, but he was 4-0 with a 1.48 ERA in August. RHP Joe Blanton won 16 games last year and LHP Joe Kennedy had a team-best 2.31 ERA despite a lengthy stay on the disabled list. Offensively, OF Nick Swisher should continue to improve and it’s hoped that Piazza can fill the void left by Thomas. Jason Kendall is an outstanding contact hitter and one of the league’s most durable catchers. The bullpen is stacked, with closer Huston Street and RHP Justin Duchscherer. This team should definitely compete with the Angels for the West or at least a Wild Card.
Glass Half Empty: There’s no escaping how injury-prone this team is. Harden, Loaiza and Kennedy all have major injury concerns in the rotation and so does SS Bobby Crosby. People can question Zito’s fading velocity over the past couple of years, but no one can doubt his durability. He ate a lot of innings, which is something that could be valuable if one or more of the starters hits the disabled list. Piazza has a lot on his shoulders to reproduce the pop and power Thomas displayed last year, and OF Milton Bradley is in a contract year, which could spell a potential distraction. One has to love the grit and savvy this team has displayed in the past, but significant injuries might cause losing streaks that keep this club out of the postseason.
3. Texas Rangers
| BASEBALL MOVIES For a sport that induces rabid obsession in its fans and narcolepsy in its detractors, there have been a startling number of well made, and totally different, movies about baseball. The really good ones, however, ascend to a level that extends far beyond the game. Below are the bottom five movies in the list of our 10 favorite baseball films. Click here for the full list, and check out our all-movie team a bit later. |
| 10. PRIDE OF THE YANKEES (1942) Released a year after Lou Gehrig's death, this film chronicles the life and career of the "other" Yankees slugger. Hearing Gary Cooper say the words, "Today…I consider myself…the luckiest man…on the face of the earth" is guaranteed to give any baseball fan goose bumps. |
| 9. 61* (2001) A movie directed by a baseball fan (Billy Crystal), for baseball fans, HBO's "61*" is both depressing and uplifting because Crystal carefully paints his characters (namely Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle) as invincible on the field and vulnerable off it. |
| 8. THE BAD NEWS BEARS (1976) A drunk ex-minor league coach (Walter Matthau) is in charge of the motliest crew of players in a very tough California baseball league. What's not to love? The most unforgettable scene may be when a rival coach beats his own son on the pitcher’s mound in the middle of a game. The way he exacts his revenge is one of the sweetest plays of the game. |
| 7. A LEAGUE OF THEIR OWN (1992) Penny Marshall’s love letter to the All-American Girls Professional Baseball League makes the list solely for the famous scene between Jimmy Dugan (Tom Hanks) and right fielder Evelyn Gardner (Bitty Schram). When she fails to hit the cutoff man, he lays into her, and she bawls. “What…. Are you crying? There’s no crying! There’s no crying in baseball!” |
| 6. THE NATURAL (1984) Yes, the final scene with the home run and the exploding lights is a bit over-the-top, but you’ve got to love “The Natural.” For one, is there a better fictitious baseball name out there than Roy Hobbs (okay, aside from Crash Davis), and secondly, how cool would it be to smack a big-league homer with a bat you carved yourself? |
Newcomers: Major additions include OFs Frank Catalanotto (Blue Jays), Marlon Byrd (Nationals) and Kenny Loften (Dodgers), RHPs Eric Gagne (Dodgers) and Brandon McCarthy (trade/White Sox).
Departures: OF Gary Matthews (Angels), 2B Mark DeRosa (Cubs), OF Carlos Lee (Astros), RHPs Kip Wells (Cardinals) andAdam Eaton (Phillies) and C Rod Barajas (Phillies) are the most notable losses.
Watch Out For: Nelson Cruz, OF
Cruz needs to cut down on the strikeouts, but has massive offensive potential. He sees the fastball well, has above average power and has the speed to steal a few bases. He has a gun and speed, which equates to him being a fine defensive player, although he does have to get more consistent in tracking balls. At only 26, the Rangers have a nice, young outfield prospect.
Letdown Alert: Eric Gagne, RHP
Fans looking for Gagne to be the man he was in L.A. are going to be severely disappointed. There’s no telling if he’s fully recovered from the elbow problems that limited him to only two appearances last year. Scouts have noted that his velocity is probably going to be way done and that he’ll have to rely more on his curveball, which is good, but can it keep him dominant?
Glass Half Full: Texas has the new skipper, offense, defense and bullpen to compete in the division. Even with losing Matthews – who had a career year at the plate in ’06 – the lineup should still produce plenty of runs. 1B Mark Teixeria, 3B Hank Blalock and OFs Brad Wilkerson and Cruz make a potent lineup. Manager Ron Washington should also instill life in the team that Buck Showalter had drained over the years, which cannot be undervalued. With the combination of veterans and youth, this is certainly a club on the rise.
Glass Half Empty: Notice the one thing missing from the “Glass Half Full” section? Starting pitching is going to be a huge question mark for the Rangers, as it always is. Nobody will question if RHP Kevin Millwood still has number one-stuff, but durability is usually an issue. He stayed healthy last year, which is a great sign, but after him, doubts loom. RHP Vicente Padillia pitched well last year, but he was going for a contract and might not deliver after receiving a long-term deal. RHPs Robinson Tejeda and Brandon McCarthy both have potential, but it’s unrealistic to expect breakout years from both of them. Ditto for LHP John Koronka, who sometimes is too straight with his fastball and has control issues. Is the starting rotation postseason-worthy? Losing Lee’s .300 Avg., 37 HR’and 116 RBI aren’t going to be easy to replace either.
4. Seattle Mariners
Newcomers: OF Jose Guillen (Nationals), RHPs Miguel Batista (Diamondbacks), Arthur Rhodes (Phillies), Chris Reitsma (Braves) and Jeff Weaver (Cardinals) were signed through free agency. LHP Horacio Ramirez (Braves) and 2B Jose Vidro (Nationals) joined the club via trades.
Departures: RHP Gil Meche was arguably Seattle’s biggest loss. OF T.J. Bohn (Braves), LHP Bobby Livingston (Cincinnati), C Guillermo Quiroz and RHP Joel Pinerio also departed via free agency. RHP Rafael Soriano (Braves) and OF Chris Snelling (Nationals) were traded.
Watch Out For: Felix Hernandez, RHP
At 20, Hernandez has stud written all over him. Blessed with a fastball that consistently hits 95 mph, a power curve and a straight change, Hernandez is ready to take that next step. Last year he finished with a 12-14 record and a 4.52 ERA, but there’s no reason he can’t top 15 wins this season and lower his ERA into the high 3.00s. He needs to control his emotions when things start to unravel, but he’s young and will benefit from another year in the big leagues.
Letdown Alert: Jose Vidro, DH
Vidro has had health issues over the past couple of years that have severely limited his rub production, and thanks to knee problems he isn’t much of a base stealing threat either. He’ll still hit for decent average and pop a few home runs, but isn’t too mobile in the field and is starting to show his age.
Glass Half Full: Seattle has the individual talent to compete. OF Ichiro Suzuki, of course, is solid in all aspects of the game, especially his amazing offensive skills, strong arm and speed. The Mariners also have a nice collection of , young talent in Hernandez, C Kenji Johjima, SS Yuniesky Betancourt and 2B Jose Lopez. Hernandez is ready to break out, while Betancourt is an outstanding fielder who makes the hardest plays look easy. 3B Adrian Beltre and 1B Richie Sexon will provide enough power to be dangerous, and RHP J.J. Putz is a solid closer who is extremely durable and throws in the mid-90s.. The rest of the bullpen can be outstanding, but Chris Reitsma, Mark Lowe and Julio Mateo have to stay healthy.
Glass Half Empty: The starting rotation took a considerable hit by losing Meche, although Kansas City undoubtedly overpaid for his services. While Hernandez is ready to go, Jarrod Washburn, Batista, Horacio Ramirez and Weaver all have question marks. The key might be Weaver, who finished ’06 with a solid postseason performance, but if previous years are any indication, probably won’t pan out. Ramirez has had arm trouble and Washburn is injury-prone as well. Sexson and Beltre are quality, but the Mariners are still waiting on these guys to overachieve and live up to their big contracts. Possibly the biggest issue with this club has been playing as a collective unit instead as individuals. A lack of an identity seems to keep this talented club from reaching a higher level of play.
AL West |