2007 Baseball Preview: NL East
03/30/2007
Baseball Preview Home / Sports Channel / Bullz-Eye Home
Will the additions of starters Freddy Garcia and Adam Eaton lift the Phillies to a division title or is the NL East still the Mets' to lose? Both Philly's and New York's lineups are stacked with electric young talent, but will the absence of Pedro Martinez at the start of the year hold the Mets down? Atlanta seems to be a team at a crossroads, but a battle-tested roster and a vastly improved bullpen suggest it'd be unwise to understimate the Braves. Heck, even the young Marlins could be fighting for the Wild Card this fall. In fact, the only sure thing here is that the Nationals will be buried in last place by the All-Star break.
NL East |
1. Philadelphia Phillies
Newcomers: RHPs Freddy Garcia and Adam Eaton (Rangers) join the starting rotation in Philly. 3B Wes Helms, OF Jayson Werth and C Rod Barajas were the other notable signings.
Departures: LHPs Randy Wolf (Dodgers) and Aaron Fultz (Indians) were picked off the pitching staff. C Mike Lieberthal (Dodgers), RHP Gavin Floyd (trade/White Sox) and OFs David Dellucci (Indians) and Jeff Conine (trade/Reds) also will not return.
Watch Out For: Jimmy Rollins, SS.
In a similar mold to the Mets’ Jose Reyes, Rollins is a steady player who only continues to improve, quickly becoming a more complete player both offensively and defensively. He started to drive the ball better last year and his power numbers should only continue to rise. He sees breaking balls well and is a solid defender with excellent range and a good arm.
Letdown Alert: Pat Burrell, OF
Many scouts and fantasy “experts” alike are down on Burrell. The Phillies were actively trying to deal him before the trade deadline last year and again this offseason. He’s injury prone, a defensive liability and doesn’t run very well either. Burrell will probably continue to be a good run producer with above average power, but isn’t a smart hitter and is likely to be moved unless he breaks out in ’07.
Glass Half Full: Everything starts and ends with 1B Ryan Howard, who was rewarded handsomely in the offseason for his MVP performance in ’06. There are always question marks the year following a huge seasons and a huge contract. But Howard seems well grounded and unlikely to let success go to his head. With apologies to Howard, the starting pitching staff is where the Phillies really make their leap past competition. Garcia should do very well in his new digs and LHP Cole Hamels is definitely the guy in the rotation to keep an eye on. RHPs Brett Myers and Adam Eaton will join lefty Jamie Moyer as the solid veterans of the staff who round out the rest of the rotation. OF Shane Victorino has loads of potential and will benefit from being sandwiched between Rollins and Howard in the lineup.
Glass Half Empty: As strong and deep as the starting rotation is, the bullpen has major question marks. Closer Tom Gordon still has the stuff to be solid, but runs out of gas if he pitches more than a few days in a row. He also needs to be protected, which isn’t a guarantee with an inconsistent Ryan Madson. In addition to the bullpen, the questions about Garcia, Howard and Hamels will make this club either good or great in ’07. Will Garcia make the transition from the AL? Is Howard primed for a letdown after a breakout ’06? Will Hamels’ back hold up?
2. New York Mets
Newcomers: The Mets’ biggest move was getting fastball hitting OF Moises Alou (Giants). Other notable acquisitions are C Sandy Alomar Jr. (White Sox); RHPs Jason Standrige (Reds), Ambiorix Burgos (trade/Royals) and Jorge Sosa (Cardinals); OFs Ben Johnson (trade/Padres) and David Newhan (Orioles); 2B Damion Easley (Diamondbacks); and LHPs Jason Vargas (trade/Marlins) and Adam Bostick (trade/Marlins).
Departures: LHPs Royce Ring (trade/Padres) and Darren Oliver; RHPs Heath Bell (trade/Padres), Henry Owens (trade/Marlins), Matt Lindstrom (trade/Marlins), Chad Bradford (Orioles), Roberto Hernandez (Indians) and Brian Bannister (Royals); and INF Chris Woodward.
Watch Out For: Jose Reyes, SS
There’s not much to “watch out for” since everybody already knows what’s coming. Reyes is an outstanding player with incredible speed, above average power and exceptional defensive footwork. He’s a guy who could hit .300 with 20-plus HRs and 80-plus RBI, all while ranking as one of the best defensive shortstops in the league. With two solid MLB seasons under his belt, he should only get better, which is scary.
Letdown Alert: Shawn Green, OF
In this lineup, Green’s declining production won’t be on display as much as it would be on a non-contender, but how much longer does he have? He still is an above-average contact hitter, but lacks the bat speed and power that once made him a deadly hitter. His arm strength is decent, but he doesn’t get good overall jumps and won’t be able to hold up over the entire season.
Glass Half Full: This club is chock-full of offense, a manager in Willie Randolph who focuses on intangibles and most of all, players who believe. Reyes and 3B Danny Wright are absolute studs, while Alou will bring a solid bat to an already stacked lineup. Another player to watch for is Lastings Milledge, who will compete for playing time in an outfield with two players (Alou and Green) who will need plenty of rest throughout the season. At 22, he might not explode on the scene until next year, but will definitely have an impact in ’07. OF Carlos Beltran, C Paul Lo Duca and 1B Carlos Delgado bring a nice blend of power, average and versatility to the rest of the lineup. The starting rotation is fair, but LHP Tom Glavin and RHP Pedro Martinez are still two of the best in the game when healthy. LHP Billy Wagner is still a big-time MLB closer too.
Glass Half Empty: The rotation will probably get them into the postseason, but how much further? Martinez won’t be ready until well after the season kicks off and LHP Oliver Perez posted a horrible 3-13 record and 6.55 ERA last year. RHP Orlando Hernandez resembles his half-brother Livan in that he’ll win 10 games, but also lose 10. Will the absence of Martinez early in the season cause the team to stumble out of the gate? Alou and Green provide question marks about durability at the corner outfielder positions too, although Milledge will add depth.
3. Atlanta Braves
Newcomers: RHPs Tanyon Sturtze and Rafael Soriano (Mariners); SS Chris Woodward (Mets) and OF T.J. Bohn are Atlanta’s newcomers.
Departures: The Braves lost RHPs Danys Baez (Orioles) and John Thomson (Blue Jays); LHP Horacio Ramirez (trade/Mariners); 1B Daryle Ward (Cubs); and 2B Marcus Giles (Padres).
Watch Out For: Chuck James, LHP
After going 11-4 last year with a 3.78 ERA, some say James has already arrived. The nice thing about him, however, is that he got better with each outing, meaning there are even more good things to come. His fastball has nice tailing action to it and his breaking pitches are deceptive thanks to good arm movement and motion. Is he a future ace? Maybe not, but if he continues to develop, he’ll be a solid middle-of-the-rotation pitcher.
Letdown Alert: Mike Hampton, LHP
Perhaps the biggest issue with Hampton is that Atlanta is still counting on him to make a big comeback. If he were a fourth or fifth starter with a youngster ready to emerge if he failed, Hampton wouldn’t be such a question mark. However, he hasn’t pitched since August 2005 because of elbow problems, so who knows what to expect from this guy?
Glass Half Full: One thing is always guaranteed with the Braves, and that’s Bobby Cox. The long-time skipper always gets the most out of his team and won’t allow his guys to concede anything. OF Andruw Jones and 3B Chipper Jones are still major forces in the lineup, and SS Edgar Renteria has always had a sweet swing. RHP John Smoltz looks better with age and RHP Tim Hudson should rebound after a down year in ’06. James is improving and closer Bob Wickman remains a crafty veteran capable of 30-plus saves. Atlanta has some emerging hitters too, most notably C Brian McCann and 1B Adam LaRoche. McCann had an outstanding ’06, hitting .333 with 24 HRs and 93 RBI. A similar output would go a long way to making the Braves a contender again.
Glass Half Empty: It’s amazing to see a team that has consistently won division title after division title lose 79 games last year. For some teams, 79 wins is a mark of in improvement, but not in Atlanta were the Braves have won 90-plus games nine of the past 10 years. Unfortunately for Brave fans, a quick turnaround isn’t likely with the Mets and Phillies seemingly stacked. As previously noted, Hampton is a big question mark and Hudson has to bounce back from last year when he gave up more runs than any other season of his career. Can the new setup man Soriano be effective? Some scouts think he won’t ever recover from the head injury he suffered last season.
4. Florida Marlins
Newcomers: As usual, Florida spent hardly any money this offseason. The biggest acquisition was getting Aaron Boone from Cleveland. RHPs Henry Owens (trade/Mets), Matt Lindstrom (trade/Mets) and Kevin Gregg (trade/Angels) were also acquired.
Departures: 3B Wes Helms (Phillies), RHPs Joe Borowski (Indians) and Chris Resop (trade/Angels), LHPs Adam Bostick and Jason Vargas won’t be donning the black and teal this season.
Watch Out For: Josh Johnson, RHP
Johnson has the fastball, slider and changeup that screams “ace.” After beginning the ’06 season in the bullpen, he quickly moved into a starting role and posted a 12-7 record with a 3.10 ERA. Equipped with a cannon and excellent command, Johnson will quickly move up the MLB ranks and might win 15 games this season.
Letdown Alert: Taylor Tankersley, LHP
This isn’t a total shot at Tankersley, because he is a solid relief pitcher. It’s just that he needs to improve his command and decision-making in order to be an effective closer. Florida is going to miss Borowski more than they think and might have too high expectations for Tankersley, who led the team with 22 holds last year. He’s also battling through a shoulder injury, although he should be ready by Opening Day. It is hoped that a down season won’t ruin his development, because he has plenty of potential.
Glass Half Full: It’s the Marlins; they have youngsters who get people excited. Along with Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, Scott Olsen, Sean West, Chris Volstad and Brett Sinkbeil could have all been listed in the “Watch Out For” section. In the field, SS Hanley Ramirez, 2B Dan Uggla, LF Josh Willingham and 1B Mike Jacobs all breed youthful excitement. Toss in stud 3B Miguel Cabrera and LHP Dontrelle Willis and it’s no wonder this team is always listed as the proverbial “sleeper” ball club. Hey, if all the young guys come together, and the starting pitching cashes in on its potential, the Marlins might compete for the Wild Card. It’s an extreme long shot, but that was said in ’03 too, when Florida surprised everyone to win its second title in less than 10 years.
Glass Half Empty: So much youth brings so many question marks and instability. Will this team ever hang on to key players? Willis and Cabrera aren’t even safe from trade rumors and one would think they are untouchable. It’s amazing how this organization isn’t linked with some of the worst in MLB with the constant reliance on youngsters. But the Fish are always respectable and that’s what keeps them from being mentioned with the likes of the Pirates, Nationals and Royals. This team just doesn’t have enough talent or the bullpen to make a serious run at a title this year. They’ll surprise people, but ultimately the Marlins are more than a few pieces short of competing with the Mets, Phillies and Braves for the East.
5. Washington Nationals
Newcomers: RHPs Tim Redding (Padres) and Emiliano Fruto (trade/Mariners); SS Josh Wilson (Marlins); 2B Ronnie Belliard; and OFs Michael Restovich (Cubs) and Chris Snelling (trade/Mariners) were the Nationals’ offseason moves.
Departures: Washington parted with highly sought-after OF Alfonso Soriano (Cubs) and also lost OFs Jose Guillen (Mariners) and Marlon Byrd (Rangers), as well as 2B Jose Vidro (trade/Mariners).
Watch Out For: Ryan Zimmerman, 3B
Zimmerman is a runaway as far as being the most talented National. He’s regarded as one of the best young position players in the league and certainly is destined for many All-Star appearances. What makes Zimmerman so good is his exceptional power, his Gold Glove ability in the infield and his overall intelligence. At 22, the ceiling for his potential is enormous and no one should be surprised if he hit .300 with 25 HRs and 100-plus RBI.
Letdown Alert: Austin Kearns, OF
Kearns doesn’t play with a lot of intensity and sometimes appears to be going through the motions. He’s never been a guy who has hit for average and his power numbers are destined to fall, considering where he plays. He doesn’t hit well with runners in scoring position either, which isn’t good seeing as how he’s the cleanup hitter on this club. He plays well in the field, however, so all isn’t bad. Just don’t expect much offensive production. He’ll likely spend some time on the disabled list during the year.
Glass Half Full: The corner infield positions are set with Zimmerman and 1B Nick Johnson. Johnson was very productive last year, hitting .290 with 23 HRs and 77 RBI. His RBI production could stand to increase, but he’s clearly one of the best hitters on the team. New manager Manny Acta will get the most out of the lineup, especially Brian Schneider who has already shown to be a solid defensive catcher. OF Nook Logan is a blazer at either the top or bottom of the lineup and if Belliard makes the team, he’ll provide solid defense and depth in the infield.
Glass Half Empty: Bottom line, this club is in trouble again. The Nationals have next to nothing in the rotation, including four pitchers who started fewer than eight games in ’06. RHP John Patterson has matured and is ready for the next step, but there’s nothing behind him. LHPs Mike O’Connor and Billy Traber might develop someday, but it probably won’t be in ’06. It’s amazing that Belliard was only signed to a minor league contract, because the team would certainly be better off sliding Felipe Lopez to short and starting Belliard at second. Current starter Cristian Guzman didn’t play last year because of shoulder surgery, so who knows what Washington has in him? With Johnson, Zimmerman and Kearns, the offense might surprise people this year, but the lack of arms in the pitching rotation causes grave concern.
NL East |